I absolutely love the “American Thinker” blog. They have such interesting stories and great writing and I always learn something new when I go there.
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And today was no exception.
There’s an article by John Cudler entitled “Why Democrat Poll Numbers Are Worse Than You Think” which is great, and it’s really popular with me, because if you follow up with Wayne Dupree here, you know we always talk about these extra sample polls. , And Biden’s approval ratings are worse than you think.
Now, I say those things about the poll, but Mr. Kudla has actually done a really well-researched, truth-based part on it, and backed up everything I’ve been blabbering on about.
I really want you to read the whole part of it because it is very good and informative, but let me satisfy your appetite with some small pieces which I found really interesting.
In addition to the obvious over-sampling of Dames, the Polstars are doing two things that artificially inflate Joe Biden’s vote counts.
It’s been a long time since we’ve had cell phones, but Polstars still don’t understand how to get past caller IDs and cell users have to answer their calls.
So, to conduct the poll, they are still calling the landline.
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Not only is this old but the landline demographic does not accurately represent the overall “random” voters … at all.
Mr. Food writes:
As recently as the 1990s, pollsters could rely on getting a random sample of telephone survey responses, but no more. Although most Americans have a cell phone, the ban on auto-dialing cell phones means polesters continue to make calls to landlines. This is problematic because landlines have a population different from the general population And many of them have caller IDs, allowing voters to see who’s calling.
If you ask me, Polstars don’t seem to be interested in solving this problem, mainly because polls are like “science” these days. You can tell by twisting your “research” what you need to say to the person paying for it.
These are not just for marketing – in the TDS era, they are also a major promotional tool. What better way to tell the country that Trump is “not popular” than with this stupid vote? This is what they have done year after year.
Many of these “mainstream” polesters are politically biased, so the water is really cloudy.
Speaking of muddy water – another problem for these Polstars, and what distorted the numbers is that they are drawing water from a well that is predetermined to support the dams.
Let me explain … most of these guys are voting from the “Registered Voters” pool instead of the “Potential Voters” pool, and for good reason … it turns out that the “Registered Voters” have historically been more supportive of Dames than they are. Not Republican.
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We estimate that in the mid-1990s, there was a 2.6 percentage-point democratic bias in registered voter polls – compared to potential voter polls, which were neutral.
So, what does Mr. Kudla think is the dam skew number?
The political climate today is different since the 2020 election, but the Democrat vote bias seems to be intact, at 4% nationwide. Since unresponsive bias, 4%, and registered voter bias, 2.6%, should be mutually exclusive, we can add them together. This gives us about 6.5% of the total Democrat bias.
What does this mean? Unless the pollsters switch to sampling potential voters just before the election, you can subtract a solid 6 percent from Joe Biden’s approval numbers. And if nothing changes before the election, any Democrat who is 3 percent or less ahead is likely to lose.
So, if Biden sits at 33 percent in the latest Quinnipiac poll, a very left-leaning pollster I can add, he is actually more likely to have a 27% approval rating.
I suggest you read the whole part of Mr. Kudler, it was really good and interesting.
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